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St Ledger

Looking through your list GW and SKY CRUSADER is a horse that I backed a few runs ago (at MUSSELBURGH 3/1 Fav) thinking that it would go well on the ground but it was disappointing. Looking through his form the only time he has won was over 7f on GD-FM in a class2 and he carried 8-7. Tomorrow he carries 8-4 and has all the other factors in his favour. Not sure about the draw but could just about be ok. Of course I could be totally barking up the wrong tree but your never know in this game. Is a tasty price as well!!

Thurles 4-55pm: Undoubtedly all the focus will be on Ballytrim here, who is high in ante-post lists for the Cheltenham bumper, thanks in no small part obviously because of trainer Willie Mullins and owner Archie O Learys record in that race with two similar types in Florida Pearl and Missed That. This 5yo was absolutely slammed first time at Punchestown by Mr Nosie, but then put up a better performance to beat the subsequently impressive Tully Hill at Oldcastle next time. Sold after that run, he is unlikely to be much of a price tomorrow due to form of the stable bumper horses.

How does getting trounced by an unbeaten hurdler make you the champion bumper winner?
I know he won his second ptp well and could be a very useful horse, but the form as it stands makes him no superstar.
He could well be very decent but at current prices he is pathetic value.
I assume given that you are so keen on him that you snapped up some of the 25s that were previously available.

When one considers that Missed That was 20s after winning his second bumper at Naas and this chap is trading at single figures (both had previous point form so no difference there although Missed That's was probably superior on a line through Travino), it illustrates what rank bad value he represents.

I have little doubt that he will win today but his ante post price is a joke.

It sounds a lot like you jumped on the bandwagon when you saw the horse shorten.

Mr Nosie won his last race during the Chrostmas period. Therefore all the form was in place at that stage to make the assessment about Ballytrim. He was available at 25s at that stage, so if you are basing it on that form, that is the price that should have been taken.

He has been talked up a lot by people like the groutch on here. They appear to have taken the bigger prices and they may well have a value bet in these circumstances.

However for the most part, punters have been backing him at ever shortening prices, because of the Mullins factor, the hype about the horse and the price contraction. The actual form of his ptp win is only looked at after all of the reasons have already been noted.

10s may well look big later as if he wins he is likely to go to half those odds which is fair enough. You may also be on at the bigger prices that I mentioned, which again I will happily accept.

I mean no malice with this and I would like to see the horse win, but a lot of people are masquerading as though they are in the know, when they are just another part of the hype machine which has built up around the horse. itts a tricky race this every year as,1,5milers are stepping up and youve no idea will they stay,only if one of the fastest horses at 2,5m enters it can you back with confidence as if all new ones stay they wont be faster than the fasatest - a arc winner something like that - and if hes proven at 2,5m all the better.cant see such a horse entering it - but might do one day and bet of decade

Interesting theory, where you drinking when you wrote that?

The Ascot Gold Cup is such a specialist distance that such a theory is doomed imho.

It is all about proven stayers. So it is all about Distinction and Reefscape this year.

Can't see an Arc winner ever running in the Ascot Gold Cup but it has been proved before that Ascot Gold Cup runners do quite well in the Arc. So an Ascot Gold Cup winner may win the Arc.

the arc bit is a wind up as reefscape as good as won arc - so looks a cert here, and making point even if something is stepping up - it wont be faster

The first part isn't mad - yes proven stayers are more likely to be able to step up - but your betting with hope not knowledge, not all 2milers will be as good at 2.5m and some 1,5m will step up and be better - your guessing - but if a arc winner entered - then no guess involved.

the arc bit is a wind up as reefscape as good as won arc - so looks a cert here, and making point even if something is stepping up - it wont be faster


Its all the same reflection - it stays in g1 at long dist 1m7f and 2m4f where's the muddle, my point was - said tongue in cheek, if ever a horse was to run in gold cup who was a arc winner or as good as a arc winner then it would be a certainty as you've got the class with the guarantee of staying - whereas normally you've got the class i.e 1,5m winner g1 but don't know if it will stay ,which is what a lot of entries are like in gold cup






 

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