Online Poker : Poker Odds
Over the next couple of weeks, I am going to introduce
some probabilities, odds and suggest how to use them.
One often quoted poker statistic goes as follows...
2,2 will beat A,K 53% of the time,
but 10,Js will beat 2,2 over 50% of the time.
So 10,J is a better hand then A,K ? Of course not,
A,K is a 63% favourite against 10,J.
The above statistics are very interesting, and can certainly
convince your opponents that you a complete bore, but are
they of any use? How can you take advantage of this information?
The easy answer is you can't. In this case, I will quite
happily commit my whole stack with A,K before the flop in
NLH tournaments, but would have to be under extreme pressure
to do it with 2,2 or 10,J. The reasons for this are simple.
If you should get called, and you have to win the hand to
stay in the tournament, what might your opponent have?
If you have 2,2, then you are never going to be a big favourite
against any possible hand unless it has a 2 in it. (You
are very lucky if your opponent has A,2, and then you are
only 1/2 favourite). If he has any two over cards, you are
in some sort of coin flip. If he has an over pair, you are
a 4/1 underdog.
If you have 10,J , then you are probably in almost as much
trouble. You will not have been called by any hand that
you are a significant favourite against. If you have been
called by a big pair, or A,J, A,10, then you need a miracle.
The best you can hope for, is a coin flip against a lower
pair.
With A,K there are only two possible dominators : You will
need a miracle against American Airlines, and you are a
2/1 dog against K,K. All the other pairs are coin flips.
With this hand though, there is an upside. If you are an
aggressive player, or you are playing against some loose
callers, you may get called by many hands that you dominate:
A,Q, A,J, A,10, K,Q.
Remember though, when moving your chip stack in with any
of these three hands, the best result is that your opponents
fold. Then you win 100% of the time!
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