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BETTING ANALYSIS
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Serie A

Sat Feb 19

AC MILAN

v

CAGLIARI

THIS WEEKS OTHER PREVIEWS :
19 February 2005
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19 February 2005
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MATCH ANALYSIS

" AC Milan go into Saturday's clash with Cagliari looking for a performance that will give Manchester United something to worry about.

Carlo Ancelotti's men travel to Old Trafford on Wednesday in the first leg of their Champions League last 16 tie.

But after poor displays against Lazio and Reggina, which netted them six vital if fortuituously garnered points, the defending Serie A champions need to find their swagger once again.

Cagliari are eighth but only on the back of their home form - they have won once on the road all season - giving Milan hope that the visit of the travelling Sardinians can provide a confidence booster.With Juventus holding a slender two-point advantage at the top, Milan's stutters earlier in the year against Bologna and Livorno have not been as costly as they might have been if Juve had not dropped points as well.

The 2003 Champions League winners know that a defeat could prove costly as Juve face a theoretically easier battle on Sicilian soil against Messina. And unbeaten neighbours Internazionale await them in the city derby the following weekend.

``We must win in order to continue to be in the Scudetto race,'' added a determined Shevchenko.

Promoted club Cagliari travel to the San Siro with their form pointing to anything but an away win. Had the Rossoblu managed to show the same form away from the Mediterranean island, they would be fighting for the title and not for a UEFA Cup position.

Daniele Arrigoni's men have only conceded six points of a possible 36 in Cagliari but it has been a different story away from home. The Rossoblu are hoping to welcome back midfielder Nelson Abeijon from injury with Massimo Brambilla injured and Alesandro Budel serving a one-match ban.

Ancelotti is set to rest centre-back Alessandro Nesta and Brazilian midfield schemer Kaka in view of the clash against Manchester United.

Kaka has played every league game so far for the Rossoneri but will probably be replaced by Manuel Rui Costa while Nesta's place should be filled by former Manchester United defender Jaap Stam, although he is not certain to figure on his return to Old Trafford.

Cagliari has steadily moved up the table, but surprisingly, all the good work has been done at home, as they have a paltry away record. A fortnight ago, within the confines of the Stadio Sant’Elia, Cagliari defeated Lecce 3-1. Massimo Gobbi grabbed the lead for Cagliari in the 11th minute, but Mirko Vucinic leveled in the 38th.

However, as they have done most of the season, Cagliari was able to get the win. Mauro Esposito scored in the 74th, and erased all doubt in the 86th. Last weekend’s match also went to form: a trip to Brescia’s Stadio Mario Rigamonti, and another road loss, by a 2-0 score. Davide Zoboli gave Brescia the lead in just the 5th minute, and Andrea Caracciolo finished the match with a goal in second half stoppage time.

Cagliari’s home and away form could not be more of polar opposites. At home, they have won eight, drawn three, and lost just once; but on the road they have been the victors once, drawn three times, and lost eight matches.

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MATCH OUTCOME
Ten-man Milan left it late again as a stoppage-time Serginho strike saw off plucky Cagliari to put them level with Juve at the top of the table, but an injury to Andriy Shevchenko causes concern.

The Rossoneri were the only Serie A team of the season so far to beat Cagliari in Sardinia, but rested many of their top stars for this San Siro encounter. Not only were they preparing for the midweek Champions' League clash with Manchester United, but they also had six players on yellow cards and therefore in danger of missing next week's Milan derby. Andrea Pirlo returned from a knee injury, while Manuel Rui Costa, Christian Brocchi and Jon Dahl Tomasson were given rare starts.

Cagliari welcomed Antonio Langella back to the side after a ban to complete the trident attack with Mauro Esposito and Gianfranco Zola. Daniele Conti and Simone Loria stepped in for their injured teammates.

The visitors had the first chance after five minutes when Nelson Abeijon rose to nod Zola's free kick past the near post.

Milan took the initiative early on and Andriy Shevchenko ran on to Rui Costa's pass and saw his fierce shot charged down, then Seedorf drilled wide from the edge of the box.

Moments later goalkeeper Gennaro Iezzo was called into a fantastic one-handed save on Shevchenko's glancing header from a Marcos Cafu cross. The effort was aiming for the bottom far corner before the Cagliari man got down to push it out.

Shevchenko clashed heads with Simone Loria during that move and was forced off the pitch after just a handful of minutes to make way for Hernan Crespo. It didn't look good for the Ukrainian, who had a large purple bruise on his eyelid and cheekbone and was taken to hospital for tests.

Milan kept on pushing and Iezzo only parried a fierce Seedorf strike before Rui Costa's follow-up was charged down for a corner kick.

Daniele Conti spun wide with the outside of his right foot after some good work from Esposito as Cagliari were concentrating on the counter-attack.

Iezzo was again tested by another powerful Seedorf attempt from distance and Cafu shook the side-netting, but the visitors went close with Langella controlling a searching Zola pass with his heel before being dispossessed by Paolo Maldini.

There was a splendid team move on 40 minutes, as Seedorf controlled Pirlo's pass and fired his cross all the way across the face of goal with Crespo and Tomasson diving in to no avail.

Iezzo took hold of Crespo's effort at full stretch on Giuseppe Pancaro's cross, then the Argentine swung a right-foot shot just over the bar.

Cagliari had a great chance after the restart, as Massimo Gobbi's strike from the edge of the box was accidentally turned off target by teammate Esposito's intervention.

Pirlo's long-range strike skimmed the frame of the goal and Milan introduced Serginho for Christian Brocchi in an attacking move.

Maldini skipped past two opponents on the left and his cross was cleared out to Rui Costa, who could not keep his shot down.

Kaka came on for the final 20 minutes in place of Tomasson, switching to the Christmas tree formation with the Brazilian and Rui Costa supporting lone striker Crespo.

Zola is the most substituted player in Serie A and he was the first Cagliari man to make way for midfielder Loris Del Nevo.

Moments later Milan were left in ten men, as Giuseppe Pancaro hacked down Esposito for a second bookable offence. Serginho backed up to act as a left-back, but it also means Pancaro will be suspended for the Milan derby.

Cagliari tried to take full advantage and threw on Honduras hitman David Suazo, who scored in the midweek tsunami benefit at the Nou Camp.

Iezzo got down to hold Kaka's low strike after good build-up play from fellow Brazilian Cafu, then moments later Rui Costa turned a header wide from two yards on a corner kick.

The Sardinians threatened on the break as it turned into end to end stuff and Dida blocked a Del Nevo shot, then several Milan efforts were charged down by desperate defenders, though there were timid penalty appeals for an Agostini handling offence.

Pirlo's free kick was charged down and another Rui Costa strike held, but in stoppages the San Siro was chaotic.

Cafu took advantage of Pisano's slip to keep the ball in at the byline and hold up a cross which eventually fell to Serginho for a fierce half-volley into the top corner. Cagliari were furious as they felt there was a push on Pisano, which saw Agostini sent off for taking his protests too far
 
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