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BETTING ANALYSIS
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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

BAYERN MUNICH

v

ARSENAL

THIS WEEKS OTHER PREVIEWS :
22 February 2005
TO RUN!
22 February 2005
TO RUN!
23 February 2005
TO RUN!
23 February 2005
TO RUN!
23 February 2005
TO RUN!

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MATCH ANALYSIS

" Bayern Munich midfielder Michael Ballack is unlikely to be fit for the German giants' Champions League clash with Arsenal on Tuesday night.

Germany captain Ballack, one of Bayern's key men, missed Saturday afternoon's 5-0 demolition of Borussia Dortmund at the Olympiastadion with a thigh strain, and coach Felix Magath admitted on Sunday that the Arsenal game is likely to come too soon for the 28-year-old.

"Michael Ballack is a vital player for us, but an appearance now could take so much out of him he might not be fully fit for a number of games."

Magath said a final decision would be taken on Monday after talks with the player. Torsten Frings and Owen Hargreaves were both rested against Dortmund but are set to return against the Gunners while Martin Demichelis gave Magath further food for thought with a fine display in front of the defence.

Defenders Lucio and Bixente Lizarazu reported minor injuries after the Dortmund game but will be fit for midweek. Arsenal left-back Ashley Cole is still struggling to recover from illness in time for the trip to the Olympic Stadium.

Cole returned to training on Sunday after missing two games due to a virus but is still not back at his best and his fitness will be decided upon on Tuesday. On a more positive note, Edu has at least recovered from a hamstring injury and is set to be reunited in central midfield with Patrick Vieira. Right-back Justin Hoyte is still out with an ankle injury while recent signing Emmanuel Eboue is not eligible for Champions League duty.

Sol Campbell is still missing due to a twisted ankle, while Dennis Bergkamp, who does not fly, also did not make the trip. This is a difficult game to call, Arsenal have a a bad record in Germany and I'm not sure if they are back to their best yet. Instead I'm going for goals in this one.

Both sides' six group games featured a total of 17 goals while Bayern's last two Bundesliga matches have generated nine goals - they hammered Borussia Dortmund 5-0 last Saturday, while Arsenal's last three Premiership outings have finished 5-1, 1-3 and 2-4. 

Arsenal have weaknesses in defence - keeper Jens Lehmann is still prone to big errors and this will be intensified without the calming presence of Sol Campbell. And given the recent goalscoring acheivements of these sides, I think going for goals looks the best bet. Some nice odds available too - above Evens! GET ON!

Recommendation:
OVER 2.5 Goals with Betfair
 

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MATCH OUTCOME

Bayern Munich 3 Arsenal 1
Tuesday February 22 2005


It was by no means the first time that Arsenal had frozen on the big occasion in the Champions League.

However, this time, on a bitterly cold night in Munich, they did so both literally and professionally as their Champions League hopes were dealt a severe blow by a vibrant Bayern side.

The only hope for Arsenal on a night of defensive suicide came late on as Kolo Toure struck a vital away goal that at least gave the visitors a glimmer of hope for the second leg of this last-16 tie.

However, there were still 3-1 down and, while a 2-0 win at Highbury would now suffice, what price this porous Arsenal defence keeping a clean sheet?

The Gunners' history is already littered with far more troughs than peaks and they suffered another setback as they fell behind after just four minutes.

It was an too familiar tale as, without either Sol Campbell or Ashley Cole, Arsenal wilted at the back as Toure's mistake allowed Claudio Pizarro to strike from close-range.

The Gunners' defensive inadequacies returned to haunt them again on 58 minutes as Pizarro was left unmarked to head home substitute Mehmet Scholl's free-kick.

And while Jens Lehmann could not be faulted for either of those goals, he was hardly impressive as Hasan Salihamidzic inflicted Bayern's third blow on 65 minutes.

Toure's late strike at least muted the celebrations in Munich and the goal also provided some relief for the Ivory Coast defender.

He had been clearly at fault for Bayern's early opening goal as, under little obvious pressure when Oliver Kahn's long clearance reached him, he inexplicably headed the ball into the air.

Peruvian Pizarro gave Lehmann no chance with an excellent first-time volley and Arsenal were already up against it.

With Freddie Ljungberg in behind Thierry Henry, they at least started to dominate possession in midfield, but this was not translated into any meaningful pressure or chances.

Indeed, Henry and Pires were both peripheral figures as Bayern simply sat back and soaked up the Arsenal pressure.

That led to frustrations for the visitors, with Patrick Vieira booked for dissent after complaining to referee Kim Milton Nielsen that Willy Sagnol had dived after being challenged by Jose Antonio Reyes.

Arsenal were also forced into a change when Edu's hamstring problems returned and Mathieu Flamini replaced him with 10 minutes left before half-time.

Still, they struggled to make an impression in attack and it was only when Clichy's long-range effort received a wicked deflection that Kahn even looked in trouble, although the ball ran wide for a corner.

Arsene Wenger's men roused themselves into action after the interval, with Reyes' effort hitting the side netting, while Ljungberg shot straight at Kahn.

But it was still Lehmann - up against his international rival Kahn - who had to produce a superb reaction save to deny Roy Makaay from close range.

Pascal Cygan failed to cut out Ze Roberto's deep cross, but Lehmann clawed Makaay's shot around the post, with Hasan Salihamidzic flicking the ensuing corner just wide.

Bayern coach Felix Magathe made a tactical switch on 57 minutes with Scholl replacing Ze Roberto and the substitute instantly delivered the free-kick from which Pizarro put Bayern 2-0 ahead.

Once again, Arsenal's marking was abysmal, with Toure so late in closing the Peru striker down that he actually managed to deflect the ball past Lehmann.

If that seemed bad enough, worse was to follow as Arsenal were exposed for a third time with 64 minutes gone.

This time Lehmann was caught out of position as he could not reach Torsten Frings' deep cross and Salihamidzic was - unsurprisingly on a night of defensive confusion - left unmarked to volley home.

Frings was the next to be left in acres of space with only Lehmann to beat but this time he fired his shot into the side-netting.

Lauren was fortunate to escape with a yellow card for a two-footed lunge on Lizarazu, while Wenger brought on Cole with eight minutes left and the need for an away goal now having desperation point.

With two minutes left, there was finally hope. Vieira's volley struck the crossbar from point-blank range and Toure managed to bury the rebound.

Bayern, who had been virtually assured of their quarter-final place before then, were finally given cause for concern but it will still take a super-human effort to turn this tie around.

 

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